In this market the list price is no information about the price. It is the condition on which a watch would be released if it were available. With the sought-after references it rarely is.
Anyone who accepts that makes a clear decision: wait and pay list, or buy at once and pay a premium. Anyone who does not accept it pays both — time in one place and a premium in the other. This article sets out the items.
With sought-after references you are not buying a movement but an allocation. The premium on the secondary market is the open price for that access.
What a waiting list actually is
A central waiting list held by the manufacturer does not exist at Rolex. Several market observers state this consistently: what buyers experience as a waiting list is an individual authorised dealer's list of interested parties.
That list is not an order of precedence. It is a matter of discretion. In practice, the allocation of a scarce reference is decided by the purchase history with the house in question, not by the date of the enquiry.
For outsiders an uncomfortable clarity follows: an enquiry made while travelling as a rule leads to no entry on any list. The reported waiting times, collected from buyers' accounts and evaluated by one dealer, are correspondingly widely spread:
- ✦Datejust: 3 months to 2 years
- ✦Submariner: 4 months to 3 years
- ✦GMT-Master II: 6 months to 4 years
- ✦Daytona in steel: 2 to 5 years, in practice by customer standing
These ranges are anecdotal accounts, not a manufacturer's statement. They serve as an order of magnitude and not as an undertaking. An authorised dealer who names a dependable deadline is in truth naming a hope.
The premium, reference by reference
Blanket rates are misleading here. The premium is a property of the individual reference, not of the brand. The orders of magnitude in mid-2026, each with the nature of the source:
- ✦Submariner Date in steel: according to a dealer market report, around 18 per cent above list, the green-bezel variant around 26 per cent. German offers in September 2026 lie roughly between €11,800 and €15,300, depending on condition and completeness.
- ✦Daytona in steel: 75 per cent above list with the black dial, over 100 per cent with the white. German offers quote around €27,000 to €34,000.
- ✦Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711 in steel, no longer built since the end of 2021: in September 2026 a market database shows a list price of around 34,900 US dollars and a market price of around 120,800 US dollars — roughly three and a half times as much.
- ✦Audemars Piguet Royal Oak: the same database gives around 50 per cent premium for reference 15500 and considerably more for the thin Jumbo version. Across the brand as a whole, by contrast, Audemars Piguet stands only 0.7 per cent above retail price according to Morgan Stanley data from early 2026.
The last line is the most important in this section. Brand and reference are two different markets. Anyone who buys a brand because one of its references trades expensively is buying the wrong metric.
Neither Rolex nor Patek Philippe publishes exact German list prices. All percentage figures in this section therefore rest on dealer and market data sources, not on a manufacturer's price list. Ask the authorised dealer for the list price in writing before you compare.
The direction of the market, soberly
The premiums of 2021 and 2022 are not the benchmark. The best-known index of this market stands around 42 per cent below its peak of April 2022. Anyone who bought at the top back then paid for access at a record price.
Since the end of 2025 an upward trend has been visible again, though a narrow one. One market index gives a gain of 8.2 per cent over twelve months for February 2026, carried by three brands. Patek Philippe leads with 16.2 per cent, Rolex follows with 7.9 per cent.
The other part of the same picture is rarely supplied with it. According to Morgan Stanley's value-retention calculation, in early 2026 Cartier, Omega, IWC, Tudor and Vacheron Constantin trade between 31 and 41 per cent below retail price.
A seller who offers a watch as an investment contradicts the data of his own industry. Only three brands trade above retail price at all.
The manufacturer's certified route
Since 2022 Rolex has sold pre-owned watches through a programme of its own, initially exclusively at selected branches of one partner, by now at further houses in the official network. Watches are accepted from an age of two years.
They are completely dismantled, examined and sold with a seal of their own and a new two-year international guarantee. According to evaluations by Morgan Stanley, in 2025 the programme achieved a turnover of 530 million US dollars, growth of over 60 per cent on the previous year.
What this route costs is the open question. Dependable figures on the premium over the free secondary market are not available; the figures circulating online are individual observations. Ask for the price specifically and set it beside an offer with complete papers.
Tax: the difference on the invoice
On a new purchase from an authorised dealer the standard case applies: 19 per cent VAT on the full price, openly stated, deductible as input tax for commercial buyers.
On a pre-owned purchase from a dealer, § 25a UStG frequently applies. Where the dealer acquired the watch without input tax deduction, for instance from a private individual, he pays tax only on his trading margin. VAT may then not be stated separately.
For you this has a consequence that is lost in a price comparison: no input tax deduction is possible from such an invoice. Two nominally equal prices are therefore not equal for a commercial buyer. Check which procedure appears on the invoice before you commit.
On a later sale from private assets, the one-year period of § 23 EStG applies. Within one year a gain is taxable, thereafter not; total gains under €1,000 in the calendar year are disregarded. Anyone who trades regularly may be classified as commercial — that line is drawn by your tax adviser, not by an article such as this.
Import from Switzerland, from London, from the States
The price advantage of a purchase outside the EU mostly disappears at the border. The large item is not customs duty but import VAT of 19 per cent, calculated on the purchase price plus shipping and insurance.
The duty rate on wristwatches themselves is low; the frequently cited per-item cap, however, comes from dealer sources and does not appear in the official summary of examples. Have the applicable rate checked in the EU customs tariff before the purchase if the amount is material.
What is decisive is the declaration. Whether the watch arrives in a parcel or is worn on the wrist changes nothing about the import event. A failure to declare leads to the duties being claimed retrospectively and can result in tax criminal proceedings; the watch may be retained until the matter is clarified.
Within the EU, by contrast, no further duty arises, and a later sale within the single market triggers no new import charge. For most buyers that is the quieter route.
Papers: completeness and why it counts
In this market completeness is no collector's detail but the essential part of verifiability. The following is customarily regarded as complete:
- ✦The watch with all surplus bracelet links
- ✦Original box and, where present, the outer packaging
- ✦Warranty card or certificate of authenticity in the first owner's name
- ✦Booklets, manuals and the manufacturer's hang tags
- ✦The purchase receipts along the chain, and with an import the import receipt as well
If box and papers are missing from a watch offered as new or unworn, that is no price argument but a reason to examine. In 2025 German customs seized counterfeit goods with a total value of around 446 million euros. Personal accessories including watches were the largest category at over 313 million euros.
How concrete this becomes is shown by a single case: in July 2026 a principal customs office found ten counterfeit luxury watches in one single postal consignment, whose value as originals was estimated at over €160,000. Counterfeits are destroyed on the instruction of the brand owners; civil claims against the recipient remain possible.
Three patterns at which we break off
The first is the deposit on a promise. Money for a place on a list or for a reservation without a named, individually identified watch is no purchase transaction. It is an advance to someone whose ability to deliver you have not examined.
The second is the investment argument. Anyone who sells a watch as an investment is selling an expectation which the market data of his own industry does not support for most brands. A watch may give pleasure; as a promise of return it belongs rejected.
The third is unclear provenance at a conspicuously good price. If the import receipt is missing from an obviously imported watch, you are carrying a risk the seller has just handed over.
How a structured examination of a provider proceeds we have described in the article on the vetting of luxury service providers. That a scarce market works through chains of information and not through advertisements is shown by the article on off-market property.
Frequently asked questions
Does Rolex have an official waitlist?
No. There is no central manufacturer list. What buyers experience as a waitlist is an interested-party list kept by the individual authorised dealer at its own discretion. For allocation of sought-after references, purchase history with that house counts above all.
How high is the grey market premium?
It depends heavily on the model. For the steel Submariner, market reports in mid-2026 quote roughly 18 to 26 percent over list; for the steel Daytona, 75 to over 100 percent; for the discontinued Nautilus 5711, a multiple. According to Morgan Stanley data, in early 2026 only Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet traded at a premium at all. Cartier, Omega, IWC, Tudor and Vacheron Constantin sit 31 to 41 percent below list price.
What does differential taxation mean when buying a watch?
When a dealer buys a used watch without input tax deduction, § 25a of the VAT Act lets it tax only its trading margin. The invoice then shows no VAT charged but a note citing the provision. For the buyer this means: no input tax deduction. Buying new from an authorised dealer is the regular case with 19 percent on the full price.
Is the profit on selling a watch tax-free?
For private sales, the one-year period of § 23 of the Income Tax Act applies: within one year the gain is taxable, afterwards tax-free; below €1,000 total gain in a calendar year it is disregarded anyway. Anyone buying and selling regularly may be classified as commercial — that boundary belongs to your tax adviser, not a journal.
The quiet route to the watch
Access to a scarce reference arises through a relationship that existed before the wish, not through an enquiry to twenty dealers. That such a route also means not leaving your intentions everywhere is dealt with in our article on discretion.
The Allocation1 does not deal in watches and charges no commission on any mandate. We structure your requirement — reference, framework, time horizon — and present it exclusively to vetted service providers. You are welcome to request an invitation.
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